2016 Arctic Ice Extent Second Lowest on Record.

This image from Zack Labe at Twitter:

Source: Zack Labe

It looks like, according to the JAXA plot, that the 2016 Arctic Ice Extent minimum beats 2007's by just a hair. But they have other information indicating the 2016 low is third lowest.

2016 is strange!

Floods In Australia Again!

Crikey, it's bad...

Very bad...

Australia's Victoria State got clobbered with the worst September downpour in a century. Floods galore!

From The Age of Australia: Chloe Booker, Benjamin Preiss, Emily Woods, Victorian floods: State battered with worst September deluge in a century.

Victoria has copped the worst September deluge in a century triggering landslides along the Great Ocean Road, evacuations and school closures.

The wild weather affected 12 council areas, with 102 roads shut, seven schools closed and 14 bus routes disrupted on Wednesday. Emergency services conducted 11 rescues in floodwaters. 

A 50-kilometre stretch of the Great Ocean Road, between Moggs Creek and Skenes Creek, remains closed due to a series of landslips and fallen trees. 

Ballarat has experienced it wettest three days since 1921, while Beaufort received the most rainfall it's had in a 72-hour period since 1911, and Wedderburn since 1916.

For more, click here.

And here's a report from a local, Chris of Cherokee Organics, Courtesy of The Archdruid Report:

The rain is continuing here today and the weather has been rather feral over the past week. Looking out the window into the valley below there are huge pools of water in paddocks and the local river has clearly flooded. Fortunately, there hasn't been any major damage, the bridge deck is still higher than the floodwater and livestock appears to have been moved to higher ground well in advance. I have noticed that a couple of unexpected springs are producing crystal clear water in odd spots about the farm and I have taken note of those spots. One of the unexpected springs flooded my firewood storage, so it was a prudent investment of my time to build and fill a second firewood shed. I’m slowing down on the consumption of firewood as things warm up anyway.

His farm is on a 45-degree hillside, or so it seems: hence the reason for the springs.

Hottest August On Record!

It appears to have tied for first place with July 2016 as the hottest month on record *ever*.

Here's the pic:

Source: ThinkProgress-Climate.

From ThinkProgress-Climate:

We appear to be in the midst of the long-awaited jump in global temperatures. 

And that means “The kinds of extreme weather we have seen over the past year or so will be routine all too soon, but then even worse records will be set,” as Kevin Trenberth, one of the world’s leading climatologists, told me. 

NASA has reported that last month was not merely “the warmest August in 136 years of modern record-keeping,” it tied with this July 2016 for the “warmest month ever recorded.” And for 11 straight months (starting October 2015), the world has set a new monthly record for high temperature. 

So even though 2014 set the record at the time for the hottest year — and then 2015 crushed that record, NASA says there is a greater than 99 percent chance 2016 will top 2015. And it probably won’t be close ...

More here.

2016 is strange!

A New First! A Tropical Cyclone Forms over Land.

Yesterday PBEarthWatch posted this video on YouTube:

This was only a tropical disturbance yesterday afternoon. BPEarthWatch predicted a rapid storm development despite it being over land. And it did develop, as Tropical Storm Julia, first I've heard of to develop over land; -- well it's the Florida East Coast at mid-peninsula, but still --, you'd think this was something that happened every so often in the past but I've no recollection of any such development.

Well today it's over Georgia! It's expected to weaken into a Tropical Depression and go further inland, perhaps to Augusta, GA, though I don't expect it to.

Source: National Hurricane Center via Brevard Times.

I expect the storm to eventually veer east and head out to sea, but these storm models have their predicted storm-tracks all over the map:

Source: South Florida Water Management District via Brevard Times.

Well it turns out Julia HAS veered east; here is her position as of 11AM EDT this morning:

Source: National Hurricane Center.

And here's the latest on the hurricane models. Still all over the map! Two have Julia going up the coast and out to sea, two have her going out to sea and then recurving back WEST, and two have her moving inland!

Source: Weather Underground.

Dr Jeff Masters hasn't commented on this storm yet as of 10:47 CDT this morning, but I expect him to say something later on today. Meanwhile, what he said about the disturbance last night can be read on this webpage here (scroll down about 1/4 of the page).

In other news, a Category 5 Super Typhoon is bearing down on Taiwan (the main subject of Jeff Master's article).

Well I did a looking into on the matter if a named Tropical Cyclone or equivalent has ever formed over land before, and guess what... this is the very first time in the record books that such a storm has *ever* formed over land.

2016 is strange!

Sunrise September 11 2016

Another one of my videos under a different moniker, Pfctvs Pontivs Pilatvs at YouTube.

2016 is strange!

Sunset and Sunrise

Some photos from Sunset the day before yesterday and sunrise yesterday morning.

Sunset, August 28, 2016, 7:39 PM.

Left.

Centre.

Right.

The setting sun has created an effect in the clouds that make them appear to be self-illuminating.

Sunrise, August 29, 2016, 6:44 AM.

Left.

Centre.

Right and at an angle to catch the overhead.

The sunlight is leaking through the breaks in the clouds, even if the Sun hasn't peeked above the horizon yet, and the red sunbeams are hitting the overhead clouds giving a wicked awesome effect to the uneven side of the overcast.

2016 is strange!

Invest 99-L, the Little Tropical Disturbance That Could.

All last week hurricane watchers from Dr. Jeff masters at Weather Underground to Florida and Gulf Coast meterologists to self-taught amateurs to even conspiracy theorists were all watching this disturbance. At least one or twice this tropical wave died out and resurrected itself. But it has managed to get into the Gulf of Mexico and the NHC has now renamed it Tropical Depressiion Nine.

Here are some maps to show the current status and possible future paths.

GOES Satellite Image. Source: NFSC NOAA

Above, the latest photo taken today, August 29th, 2016 at 1700 UTC (Greenwich Mean Time) or 12:00 PM Central Daylight Time, shows TD9 blooming up as it pushes off the northwest coast of Cuba. The Gulf is quite warm, so it looks like the tropical low will strengthen quite a bit, although the National Hurricane Center predicts it will only become a tropical storm -- to be Christened Hermine or Ian.

Forecast location and intensity by simulated IR brightness temp. for August 29th, 2016 at 09z (UTC = 4 AM CDT)
Source: TropicalTidbits.com

In the HRRR forecast simulation above, tomorrow at about 4AM CDT TD9 will become a tropical storm situate in the middle of the Gulf right south of Pensacola, Florida. A wicked outer band will be crossing Collier County and central and southern Miami Dade County, Florida at that time.

Forecast location and intensity by composite reflectivity (dBZ) and mean sea level pressure (mb) for August 29th, 2016 at 09z (UTC = 4 AM CDT).  N. B.: dBZ = decibels and mb = millibars. Source: TropicalTidbits.com

In the above HRRR rainfall intensity forecast map for the same time tomorrow as the previous one, the tropical storm will have a central pressure of 998 millibars -- just under the strength required for a Category 1 Hurricane.

MSLP model forecast for North America on Friday, September 1 2016 0:00 UTC (GMT = 7 PM August 31st CDT).
Source: Centre Meteo UQAM Montreal

The above forecast map for September 2nd by Centre Meteo UQAM Montreal predicts the tropical storm will be about to go ashore in the Mobile, Alabama / Pensacola, Florida area. Central pressure of the storm going ashore is 964 millibars, which means it should be a minimal Category 1 Hurricane.

Seven-day forecast map starting August 29, 2016 at 0:00 UTC (7 PM CDT August 28). Source: ECMWF.IFS

This above map forecast for September 5th, 0:00 UTC (& PM CDT September 4th) shows the present TD9 as a sprawling extratropical / posttropical storm out in the Atlantic south of Newfoundland. But what's this other storm to the south of it? That looks like a developing West Indies Cyclone bearing down on the Atlantic just north of the Antilles. It may be a Category 3 or higher hurricane at this time, so if you live in South Florida or anywhere on the Gulf Coast, including Mexico and the Florida Peninsula, look out! This storm may have a major city's name on it.