Wednesday, September 14, 2016

A New First! A Tropical Cyclone Forms over Land.

Yesterday PBEarthWatch posted this video on YouTube:

This was only a tropical disturbance yesterday afternoon. BPEarthWatch predicted a rapid storm development despite it being over land. And it did develop, as Tropical Storm Julia, first I've heard of to develop over land; -- well it's the Florida East Coast at mid-peninsula, but still --, you'd think this was something that happened every so often in the past but I've no recollection of any such development.

Well today it's over Georgia! It's expected to weaken into a Tropical Depression and go further inland, perhaps to Augusta, GA, though I don't expect it to.

Source: National Hurricane Center via Brevard Times.
I expect the storm to eventually veer east and head out to sea, but these storm models have their predicted storm-tracks all over the map:

Source: South Florida Water Management District via Brevard Times.
Well it turns out Julia HAS veered east; here is her position as of 11AM EDT this morning:

Source: National Hurricane Center.
And here's the latest on the hurricane models. Still all over the map! Two have Julia going up the coast and out to sea, two have her going out to sea and then recurving back WEST, and two have her moving inland!

Source: Weather Underground.
Dr Jeff Masters hasn't commented on this storm yet as of 10:47 CDT this morning, but I expect him to say something later on today. Meanwhile, what he said about the disturbance last night can be read on this webpage here (scroll down about 1/4 of the page).

In other news, a Category 5 Super Typhoon is bearing down on Taiwan (the main subject of Jeff Master's article).

Well I did a looking into on the matter if a named Tropical Cyclone or equivalent has ever formed over land before, and guess what... this is the very first time in the record books that such a storm has *ever* formed over land.

2016 is strange!

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