Monday, August 29, 2016

Invest 99-L, the Little Tropical Disturbance That Could.

All last week hurricane watchers from Dr. Jeff masters at Weather Underground to Florida and Gulf Coast meterologists to self-taught amateurs to even conspiracy theorists were all watching this disturbance. At least one or twice this tropical wave died out and resurrected itself. But it has managed to get into the Gulf of Mexico and the NHC has now renamed it Tropical Depressiion Nine.

Here are some maps to show the current status and possible future paths.

GOES Satellite Image. Source: NFSC NOAA
Above, the latest photo taken today, August 29th, 2016 at 1700 UTC (Greenwich Mean Time) or 12:00 PM Central Daylight Time, shows TD9 blooming up as it pushes off the northwest coast of Cuba. The Gulf is quite warm, so it looks like the tropical low will strengthen quite a bit, although the National Hurricane Center predicts it will only become a tropical storm -- to be Christened Hermine or Ian.

Forecast location and intensity by simulated IR brightness temp. for August 29th, 2016 at 09z (UTC = 4 AM CDT)
In the HRRR forecast simulation above, tomorrow at about 4AM CDT TD9 will become a tropical storm situate in the middle of the Gulf right south of Pensacola, Florida. A wicked outer band will be crossing Collier County and central and southern Miami Dade County, Florida at that time.

Forecast location and intensity by composite reflectivity (dBZ) and mean sea level pressure (mb) for August 29th, 2016 at 09z (UTC = 4 AM CDT).  N. B.: dBZ = decibels and mb = millibars. Source:
In the above HRRR rainfall intensity forecast map for the same time tomorrow as the previous one, the tropical storm will have a central pressure of 998 millibars -- just under the strength required for a Category 1 Hurricane.

MSLP model forecast for North America on Friday, September 1 2016 0:00 UTC (GMT = 7 PM August 31st CDT).
Source: Centre Meteo UQAM Montreal
The above forecast map for September 2nd by Centre Meteo UQAM Montreal predicts the tropical storm will be about to go ashore in the Mobile, Alabama / Pensacola, Florida area. Central pressure of the storm going ashore is 964 millibars, which means it should be a minimal Category 1 Hurricane.

Seven-day forecast map starting August 29, 2016 at 0:00 UTC (7 PM CDT August 28). Source: ECMWF.IFS
This above map forecast for September 5th, 0:00 UTC (& PM CDT September 4th) shows the present TD9 as a sprawling extratropical / posttropical storm out in the Atlantic south of Newfoundland. But what's this other storm to the south of it? That looks like a developing West Indies Cyclone bearing down on the Atlantic just north of the Antilles. It may be a Category 3 or higher hurricane at this time, so if you live in South Florida or anywhere on the Gulf Coast, including Mexico and the Florida Peninsula, look out! This storm may have a major city's name on it.

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